Is there a beat in store for Tractor Supply (TSCO) in fourth quarter earnings?


Tractor Supply Company TSCO should report fourth quarter 2021 results on January 27, before the opening bell. The leading ranch store retailer is expected to have seen revenue and profit growth in the quarter ahead.

Zacks’ consensus estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.83 per share, suggesting an 11.6% increase from the figure reported a year ago. The consensus mark has remained unchanged for the past 30 days. For fourth quarter revenue, the consensus mark is set at $3.2 billion, suggesting growth of 11.6% over the reported figure for the prior year quarter. For 2021, Zacks’ consensus estimate for TSCO’s sales and EPS suggests growth of 19% and 24%, respectively, from numbers reported a year ago.

In the last reported quarter, the company recorded an 18.2% increase in profits. It has generated a profit surprise of 22.8%, on average, over the past four quarters.

Tractor Supply Company Price and EPS Surprise

Tractor Supply Company price-eps-surprise | Tractor Supply Company Quote

Factors to Note

Tractor Supply has gained strength through its Life Out Here strategy and healthy customer trends. Its e-commerce business and Neighbor’s Club loyalty program also bode well. The increased focus on growth initiatives, including expanding the store base and integrating technological advancements to drive traffic and boost revenue, likely contributed to the fourth quarter performance.

Notably, management on its last quarterly earnings call expected net sales of $12.6 billion for 2021, marking an improvement from the previously mentioned $12.1-12.3 billion. . Comps are expected to increase by 16%, compared to the previously mentioned 11-13%.

The company has also benefited from the integration of its physical and digital operations to provide consumers with a seamless shopping experience. TSCO’s omnichannel investments, including curbside pickup; same day, next day delivery; a relaunched website; a new mobile app; and the Neighbor’s Club loyalty program, helped digital sales.

Tractor Supply has made good progress in its growth efforts, such as the Life Out Here and “ONETractor” strategies. As part of its Life Out Here strategy, management has been on track with the Project Fusion renovations and Side Lot transformation to remain nationally strong and locally relevant by bringing the latest merchandising strategies to life. Management, in its last earnings call, expected to complete 150 secondary batches by 2021. These were significant store investments and should have boosted productivity in existing and new stores. The gains from these efforts should be reflected in its fourth quarter results.

However, the business has seen increased capital spending due to new in-store initiatives and the provision of technology support for the Life Out Here strategy. Commodity cost inflation, increased transportation costs that include domestic and import costs, and supply chain constraints have likely acted as a deterrent.

What the Zacks Model Reveals

Our proven model predicts increased profits for Tractor Supply this season. The combination of a positive ESP Earnings and a Zacks rank of #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of beating gains. You can discover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re flagged with our Income ESP filter.

Tractor Supply has a Zacks rank #3 and an ESP gain of +0.55%.

Other actions with a favorable combination

Here are a few other companies you might want to consider, as our model shows they also have the right combination of elements to perform better this season:

Macy’s M has an earnings ESP of +7.71% and it currently sports a Zacks ranking of 1. The company is expected to record an increase in net income when it reports Q4 2021. The Zacks consensus estimate for earnings quarterly increased by 2.6%. at $1.97 per share over the past 30 days, suggesting a 146.3% increase from the number reported a year ago. You can see the full list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Macy’s revenue is expected to grow year over year. Zacks’ consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is pegged at $8.44 billion, suggesting a 24.5% increase from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. M has posted a profit pace of 313.5%, on average, over the past four quarters.

five below FIVE currently has an earnings ESP of +0.71% and a Zacks ranking of 2. The company is expected to record an increase in earnings when it reports the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021. The Zacks consensus estimate for quarterly earnings remained unchanged at $2.48. per share, projecting growth of 12.7% from the number reported a year ago.

Five Below’s turnover is expected to increase year on year. Zacks’ consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is pegged at $1.01 billion, suggesting a 17.1% increase over the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. FIVE has recorded a profit pace of 22.4%, on average, over the past four quarters.

DICK’S Sporting Goods DKS currently has an earnings ESP of +4.46% and a Zacks ranking of 2. The company is expected to record an increase in net income when it reports the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021. The Zacks consensus estimate for quarterly earnings moved north from 21.1. % at $3.38 per share over the past 30 days, projecting a 39.1% increase from the number reported a year ago.

The turnover of DICK’S Sporting is expected to increase year on year. Zacks’ consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is pegged at $3.31 billion, suggesting a 6% increase from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. DKS has recorded a profit rate of 104.2%, on average, over the past four quarters.

5 shares ready to double

Each has been handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have skyrocketed +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%.

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Macy’s, Inc. (M): Free Stock Analysis Report

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO): Free Inventory Analysis Report

DICK’S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS): Free Inventory Analysis Report

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE): Free Stock Analysis Report

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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